When is the best time to buy heating oil?

What Fueltool's records show

Fueltool has recorded UK heating oil prices since November 2011, which gives 15 years of data. Averaging each calendar month in those records since 2012:

• Cheapest month on average: August
• Dearest month on average: January
• Average gap between the two: about 5.6p a litre

These figures use the median listing, ex VAT, for 1,000 litres, from suppliers whose price changed in the last 30 days. The gap is a long-run average. It shows which way the seasons usually lean, but it can't tell you what this particular year will do. In practice, the best time is less about the calendar than about having room in the tank and time to wait for a slower delivery.

Why the warmer months are usually cheaper

Citizens Advice says it is best to order when prices are cheaper, usually in summer and early autumn. The reason is demand. The CMA's 2026 study of the heating oil market found it highly seasonal, with demand higher in winter and lower in summer. Retail prices follow the wholesale price of kerosene all year, but distributors' margins tend to rise when seasonal demand is strong.

Delivery capacity plays a part too. UKIFDA, the fuel distributors' trade body, told the CMA that tankers are typically under-used in summer and fully used in the colder months, and that when demand spikes there may not be enough of them to meet it straight away, which affects the price.

When world events swamp the pattern

The seasons are a small force next to the oil market. Heating oil is priced off wholesale kerosene, which moves with crude oil, demand for jet fuel and the pound against the dollar. After the conflict in the Middle East began in 2026, government figures showed household heating oil prices in April to June 2026 were 90.2% higher in real terms than a year earlier, mainly because crude oil rose.

No seasonal saving comes close to a swing like that, and nobody can reliably say when the next one will come. Government statistics also show that in recent years demand for heating oil has followed price more closely than temperature, with households tending to buy in bulk when prices are low. There is more on this in why heating oil prices change.

A sensible way to time it

• Check your level in late summer. If you have room, ordering before the autumn and winter rush gives you the best chance of a lower price and a delivery slot that suits you.
• Don't let the tank run low while you wait for a fall. Citizens Advice advises keeping at least a quarter of a tank, because low levels can damage the system. An empty tank means buying at whatever the price is that day, often with an urgent delivery that costs more.
• Take a slower delivery. Citizens Advice says delivery in a few weeks is usually cheaper than an urgent one.
• Watch the trend, not the headlines. The October 2026 average so far is 112.6p a litre before VAT, up 58.0p on October 2025.

To see how each month has compared year by year, look at the price history since 2011.