Heating oil prices.
Simply compared.Heating oil prices.
Simply compared.

What changed. Saudi Arabia started loading tankers again at its Red Sea port of Yanbu on Monday, the first exports since drone attacks shut its East-West pipeline earlier this month. That pipeline is the route Saudi oil takes around the Strait of Hormuz, and on current estimates it could be six to eight weeks before it is back to full flow. Crude jumped on Monday after President Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait within seven days, then gave most of it back on the Saudi news. The newer worry is diesel. On Sunday the President said he is looking 'very seriously' at banning US diesel exports to bring fuel prices down at home before the November elections. The US supplies about a quarter of the diesel the UK buys from abroad, and analysts say a ban would push diesel prices up across Europe. UK heating oil is kerosene, which comes from the same part of the refinery as diesel, so it tends to move with it.

Your next fill. At Fueltool's UK average on Tuesday 29 September, a 1,000-litre fill costs about £1,160 including VAT. That is roughly £10 less than last Thursday, after crude fell on Friday on hopes of talks between the US and Iran, and much the same as a week ago on the same basis.

What to watch. First, whether the White House goes ahead with a diesel export ban or settles for softer limits; officials are weighing both. Second, how quickly the Saudi pipeline gets back to full flow. Third, whether talks through Qatari mediators in New York bring the US and Iran any closer to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.