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The Guardian
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Source: Fueltool supplier prices
13 July 2026
Brent crude jumped around 4 per cent on Monday to close to $79 a barrel after Iran announced on Sunday that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz until further notice. The escalation followed a fresh round of US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliation against Gulf infrastructure, putting supply through the world's busiest oil chokepoint back in doubt.
UK heating oil has moved up with crude, and the Fueltool price tracker now puts the average kerosene price at roughly 85 pence per litre, up from around 79ppl a week ago. Most of that increase arrived in one step late last week as suppliers passed higher wholesale costs through to delivered prices.
The near-term picture depends on how long the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, with the IEA noting that global oil inventories were already well below normal levels heading into July. OPEC has trimmed its 2026 demand growth forecast to 800,000 barrels a day, but for now the supply risk premium is keeping both crude and UK kerosene prices elevated.