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Brent crude is trading at about $81 a barrel today, up around 1.7% after three straight sessions of losses, though it is still more than 10% lower across the week as a whole. The slide followed an agreement between Iran and Oman on the coordinates of a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, which stops short of a full reopening while cargo fees and inspections are still being negotiated. OPEC+ is adding 548,000 barrels a day of supply this month, and US crude stocks rose by roughly 2.5 million barrels last week against expectations of a drawdown.

Our Fueltool price tracker has the average UK supplier price at about 88ppl on a 1,000-litre order today, down from around 92ppl a week ago and below the 93ppl peak reached on 22 July. Kerosene climbed hard through the second half of July as the Hormuz disruption fed through, having started the month at 73ppl. The past week is the first sustained easing since that run-up began.

Kerosene follows wholesale costs with a lag of several days, so this week's fall in crude is only starting to show in the prices suppliers are quoting. Summer demand is light and the autumn restock is still ahead, leaving the near-term path resting mainly on whether the Hormuz route agreement holds and on how quickly the extra OPEC+ barrels reach the market.