Heating oil prices.
Simply compared.Heating oil prices.
Simply compared.

What changed. The energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine that President Trump announced on Sunday has unravelled. Ukraine paused its strikes on Russian refineries for a few days, then restarted them as Russia kept hitting its power plants, and on Thursday President Zelenskyy said Kyiv was done with the truce. About half of Russia's refining capacity is out of action, so the extra Russian diesel Trump announced last Friday may be slow to arrive, and S&P Global reckons it would cover only about a tenth of the world's diesel shortfall anyway. Diesel comes from the same part of the refinery as heating oil, so supplies stay tight. The International Energy Agency, which co-ordinates emergency fuel stocks, agreed on Thursday to speed up the releases promised in March, diesel first, but added no new fuel. Ships are still being hit around the Strait of Hormuz, the sea lane that normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil, and crude oil has held around $106 a barrel, so heating oil has barely moved.

Your next fill. At Fueltool's UK average on Thursday 15 October, a 1,000-litre fill costs about £1,210 including VAT, the same as at our last brief on Monday. That is roughly £30 more than a week ago on the same basis, and close to the dearest since mid-September, with the tanker attacks and tight diesel keeping prices up.

What to watch. First, whether Russia and Ukraine stop hitting each other's energy sites, and whether any of the promised Russian diesel actually ships. Second, whether countries deliver the emergency diesel they have now agreed to hurry, as the US wants more. Third, the attacks on shipping around Hormuz, the Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, and any restart of talks to end the Iran war.