Saudi exports recover but Aramco reportedly tells European refiners they will get no October contract crude
Saudi exports are recovering and crude has fallen to about $101 a barrel, though European refiners reportedly get no Saudi contract crude in October. A 1,000-litre fill costs about £1,190 including VAT, roughly £40 less than in Wednesday's brief.
What changed
Saudi oil exports are showing signs of recovery after last week's pipeline attack, and crude has fallen for four days in a row, to about $101 a barrel on Monday. Europe is not yet feeling much of the benefit.
Saudi Aramco has reportedly told European refiners they will get none of their usual contract crude in October, while the recovering supply goes mainly to Asia.
The fill on 21 September
At Fueltool's UK average on Monday 21 September, a 1,000-litre fill costs about £1,190 including VAT. That is roughly £40 less than in Wednesday's brief, but still about £30 more than a week ago on the same basis.
A fill in the month to 21 September
1,000 litres · including 5% VATView the daily figures
| Date | 1,000 litres, incl VAT |
|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | £934.85 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | £934.08 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | £917.97 |
| 25 Aug 2026 | £903.30 |
| 26 Aug 2026 | £863.27 |
| 27 Aug 2026 | £871.21 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | £892.13 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | £910.59 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | £984.19 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | £1003.20 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | £1024.79 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | £1022.10 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | £1023.32 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | £1027.94 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | £1018.07 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | £1027.86 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | £1027.89 |
| 10 Sep 2026 | £1104.95 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | £1151.92 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | £1160.09 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | £1156.10 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | £1158.39 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | £1165.09 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | £1226.10 |
| 17 Sep 2026 | £1185.60 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | £1184.19 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | £1180.97 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | £1180.97 |
| 21 Sep 2026 | £1185.45 |
The background
The summer's shortage of refined fuel has not gone away. UK heating oil is kerosene and follows the wholesale cost of jet fuel and diesel, which come from the same part of the refinery. Damage and disrupted exports in Russia and the Middle East mean too few working refineries, and diesel at European pumps hit a record high this month.
That is why cheaper crude has only trimmed the cost of a fill.
What to watch
First, whether the Saudi pipeline returns to full use; officials have suggested repairs could take several weeks. Second, whether European refiners can replace the missing Saudi deliveries in October. European Central Bank experts expect the extra cost of turning crude into diesel to peak in October, just as heating demand rises.